Monday, February 1, 2010

Inside the numbers: Which team DESERVES to be #1??

by Corey Price


On Wednesday, #3 Villanova defeated unranked Notre Dame 90-72. Today, #1 Kentucky defeated #21 Vanderbilt 85-72, #2 Kansas defeated #11 Kansas State 81-79 in overtime, and #4 Syracuse defeated unranked DePaul 59-57. Those 4 schools entered this week as the top 4 teams in the AP Poll and now they are the only 4 teams in Division I mens' basketball with only 1 loss. So when the new AP Poll comes out on Monday afternoon, who should be ranked #1? I compiled a table of statistics to do a team-by-team comparison of the 4 schools, giving an advantage to a school based on each statistic/criteria. Here's the table:












































































KUUKSyrNovaAdvantage
Overall Record20-120-121-119-1Syracuse
Conference Record6-05-18-18-0Villanova
Non-Conference Record14-115-013-011-1Kentucky
Record At Home14-014-013-110-0Kansas, Kentucky
Record On The Road5-13-16-06-1Syracuse
Record At Neutral Sites1-03-02-03-0Kentucky, Villanova
Record vs. Ranked Teams2-13-05-02-0Syracuse
Record vs. Unranked Teams18-017-116-117-1Kansas
Longest Win Streak14 games19 games13 games10 gamesKentucky
Current Win Streak6 games1 game8 games10 gamesVillanova
RPI1st7th2nd4thKansas
RPI Strength Of Schedule15th71st10th45thSyracuse
Possessions Per Game7172.672.372.8Villanova
Points Per Possession1.191.131.141.17Kansas
Opponents’ Points Per Possession0.880.910.890.97Kansas
Points Per Possession Margin0.310.220.250.2Kansas
Scoring Offense84.782.282.485.2Villanova
Scoring Defense62.56664.470.5Kansas
Scoring Margin22.216.21814.7Kansas
Field Goals Made Per Game29.729.230.728.2Syracuse
Field Goals Attempted Per Game59.859.55860.3Villanova
Field Goal Percentage49.70%49.10%52.90%46.70%Syracuse
Opponents’ Field Goals Made Per Game21.62323.422.3Kansas
Field Goals Made Margin8.16.27.35.9Kansas
Opponents’ Field Goals Attempted Per Game59.660.361.656.2Villanova
Field Goals Attempted Margin0.2-0.8-3.64.1Villanova
Opponents’ Field Goal Percentage36.20%38.20%37.90%39.70%Kansas
Field Goal Percentage Margin13.50%10.90%15%7%Syracuse
Free Throws Made Per Game17.517.314.220.9Villanova
Free Throws Attempted Per Game24.725.321.727.6Villanova
Free Throw Percentage70.90%68.40%65.50%75.50%Villanova
Opponents’ Free Throws Made Per Game13.312.89.918.4Syracuse
Free Throws Made Margin4.24.54.32.5Kentucky
Opponents’ Free Throws Attempted Per Game19.318.115.426.4Syracuse
Free Throws Attempted Margin5.47.26.31.2Kentucky
Opponents’ Free Throw Percentage68.90%70.50%64.50%69.50%Syracuse
Free Throw Percentage Margin2%-2.10%1%6%Villanova
3 Point Field Goals Made Per Game7.96.66.78.1Villanova
3 Point Field Goals Attempted Per Game191717.520.9Villanova
3 Point Field Goal Percentage41.60%38.50%38.50%38.60%Kansas
Opponents’ 3 Point Field Goals Made Per Game67.27.87.6Kansas
3 Point Field Goals Made Margin1.9-0.6-1.10.5Kansas
Opponents’ 3 Point Field Goals Attempted Per Game18.820.825.122.7Kansas
3 Point Field Goals Attempted Margin0.2-3.8-7.6-1.8Kansas
Opponents’ 3 Point Field Goal Percentage31.90%34.90%31%33.30%Syracuse
3 Point Field Goal Percentage Margin9.70%3.60%7.50%5.30%Kansas
Rebounds Per Game41.64238.940.7Kentucky
Opponents’ Rebounds Per Game33.53234.233.7Kentucky
Offensive Rebounds Per Game13.415.111.714.2Kentucky
Defensive Rebounds Per Game28.22727.226.5Kansas
Opponents’ Offensive Rebounds Per Game12.912.31411.8Villanova
Offensive Rebounds Margin0.52.8-2.32.4Kentucky
Opponents’ Defensive Rebounds Per Game20.619.620.221.9Kentucky
Defensive Rebounds Margin7.67.474.6Kansas
Rebound Margin8.110.14.77Kentucky
Assists Per Game18.115.920.114.8Syracuse
Opponents’ Assists Per Game12.611.115.513.1Kentucky
Assists Margin5.54.84.61.7Kansas
Steals Per Game8.87.411.18Syracuse
Opponents’ Steals Per Game6.278.56.7Kansas
Steals Margin2.60.42.61.3Kansas, Syracuse
Blocks Per Game6.37.173.8Kentucky
Opponents’ Blocks Per Game3.53.324Syracuse
Blocks Margin2.83.85-0.2Syracuse
Turnovers Per Game13.215.215.913.7Kansas
Opponents’ Turnovers Per Game14.814.717.215.8Syracuse
Turnover Margin1.6-0.51.32.1Villanova
Fouls Per Game18.616.514.521.6Syracuse
Opponents’ Fouls Per Game20.120.718.121.6Villanova
Fouls Margin1.54.23.60Kentucky
Assist-To-Turnover Ratio1.37:11.05:11.27:11.08:1Kansas
Opponents’ Assist-To-Turnover Ratio.85:1.8:1.9:1.83:1Kentucky
Assist-To-Turnover Ratio Margin+.52:1+.25:1+.37:1+.25:1Kansas
After you analyze the numbers, nothing new is really gained. Kansas is without a doubt (per the numbers) the number one team wih a real dogfight for the rest of the top. Syracuse and Villanova are tied for the number of advantages won with Kentucky just a tad behind. And that is probably going to be how the rankings come out later today. Whether it is right or not is still a subject for debate.

2 comments:

Oldkentucky said...

I liked that!

Paul Jordan said...

Thank. I will pass that on to Corey. We are the only UK blog that gives in depth staqt breakdowns before every game , so keep checking for them

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